What challenges will China's economy face under the COVID-19 epidemic? What impacts will the epidemic have on international relations, global value chains and economic trends? What adjustments can the Chinese government make to ensure economic and social stability this year?

To answer these questions, China Development Forum (CDF) launched a special column, CDF Online series, in which we will talk with forum delegates on the economic and political impacts of the virus outbreak.

Last month, Yu Jiantuo, Deputy Secretary-General of the China Development Research Foundation, had a call with professor Peter Nolan of Cambridge University to discuss the challenge on global public opinion that China faces, economic impact and the development of the world in the future.

Professor Peter Nolan of Cambridge University

Nolan has been an old friend of CDF since 2000.

During the interview, he congratulated China’s effort in controlling the virus.

He also said that the world now is faced with a “crossroad of civilization”. The global economic activity, the voice and the technological leadership will be moving towards developing countries. It is very challenging for people in the West.

In this new world, the only choice shall we go is to work together at a global level，and working together for a common future.

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US-China Relations under the COVID-19 Epidemic 

There’s not any permanent long-term effect on the relationship of the US and the Chinese supply chain. 

Yu: Many Chinese scholars or even the public are quite concerned about whether the various question here accelerate the decoupling of China-US economy and a shift of industry supply chain. 

Nolan: Regardless of the epidemic, there is uncertainty about the decoupling of China and the US, but the economies are very deeply interconnected. I don't think it should have any permanent long-term effect on the relationship of the US and the Chinese supply chain. I don't think the virus will have a fundamental impact upon those long-term structural issues that are affecting the interaction relationship of the two economies. 

Global public opinion challenge that China faces

· China has taken effective measures to get the epidemic under control

· It has not been expressed on the international media

· To deal with the hysteria of social media, all China can do is to put simple fact

Yu: There has been a lot prejudice out there in the global society. How do you evaluate measures taken by the Chinese government?
Nolan: China has taken very robust measures, very effective measures to contain the spread of the virus both inside Hubei and within China. I certainly appreciate the extremely effective measures that the Chinese government has taken.

In China, the proportion of deaths that take place through communicable diseases like viruses is 4% and it’s very low. In America，it's pretty similar. America is, actually a bit above China, 5%. In India, the proportion is 26%. And in low income countries, the portion is 50%.

China has performed exceptionally well compared not only to developing countries, but even on similar level to high income countries. I think that statistic of communicable diseases as a proportion of total deaths is an exceptionally important statistic. This is reflected in china's very high life expectancy compared to other developing countries. It's very simple statistic, but it says a great deal about the Chinese government and the Chinese leadership and also the Chinese political systems commitment to the well-being of ordinary people. You have to understand the virus in Wuhan, where it started and in Hubei in that context. And that is not a view that is expressed in the international media. And I think it needs to be expressed.

In 2009, China had a virus which came from Mexico, H1N1, and that virus in 2009 infected 60 million Americans. America's population is about a quarter of China's population, and it is estimated that it killed 120,000 people. But China has dealt very well with this virus. And I think as the virus starts to decline in its impact, people will appreciate this. And I think they'll look back on it and say the Chinese system has done very well indeed in coping with this crisis.

Yu: do you have any suggestion for China to improve such kind of communication with the international community and to better coordinate with international organizations?

Nolan: I think China's communicated very well with WHO. Unfortunately, the problem is that it is very difficult to communicate with people outside China who are communicating through social media.

Not just about China, but health is a very sensitive thing in the West. In the past in the UK, we've had health scarce about the Mad Cow Disease. People were hysterical about it. And now we are in an age where social media is very difficult to control.

I think the big challenge for China is to deal with social media and the way in which social media produces hysteria.

All China can do is to put simple effective fact and hope that people will listen. But it is very difficult to communicate because of the nature of health scarce everywhere. And also in the west. And all you can do is to keep saying, these are facts.

Grand Change of Global Political Economy

· We are in the “crossroad of civilization”

· Economic power, voice and leadership will be moving towards developing countries

· “Working together for a common future” is the only choice of a sustainable future

Yu：There seems to be a shift in political opinion in many countries. The conservatives are in power in the UK, and they are in power in the US and Australia. It seems like the world had entered an age quite similar to 1980s. What's your view on that?

Nolan: I think what is happening is not really conservative versus non-conservative. I think there is a deep understandable confusion about the world that people live in here, especially in high income countries.

In the high-income countries represented by the OECD countries, the total population is less than 1 billion, while there are 6 billion people who live outside the high-income countries. Our technologies and our rules for the international order have controlled the whole global system for about 200 years, and that period is coming to an end. This is what I've called “crossroad of civilization”.

In the future, more and more of the global economic activity will take place in developing countries as a whole. The voice of developing countries, including China and international institutions, will be more and more important, and that technological leadership cannot always reside with the West, it will be moving towards developing countries, particularly, but not only towards China.

So, this is a crossroad of global political economy.

I think people here across the West, in their hearts they know they have to share the world in every sense, environment, economy, innovation, technical progress. But it is very challenging for people in the West.

Yu: This grand change period has a fundamental importance to all of us, not only for the traditional developed economy, but also the rising developing economy country, they have to adapt to each other for a long time.

Nolan: I agree. I think that's absolutely correct. And it will be a long, complicated process. The vote in Brexit, the election of trump, all these things did reflect the confusion in the general public in the West. They know this is a very big change for them.

We also know that the world is shared by all, including the environment, technology and innovation. So, president Xi talks about a common shared future for the whole of mankind. This is a new world.

Yu: If I invite you to give some prediction about the trend of this world, and to find some uncertainty among huge uncertainty, what will you say about these?

Nolan: I think there is a danger that would lead to de-globalization because some people want that. But I've always believed and argued that we are better to have a closer interaction of the global system.

I think our philosophy must be to try to resolve common problems as president Xi says, a community of shared future. We must work together, otherwise we will not survive and the human species will face great difficulties.

So if we want to have a sustainable future for our children and our grandchildren, then the only choice shall we go is to work together at a global level in order to try to resolve the problems of global warming, the problems of environmental species extinction, the huge inequalities of wealth, the tremendous concentration of business power, and especially to regulate the global financial system.

And I think China's made great progress in all these respects. The conception of working together for a common future is a fundamental concept. China, frankly, is in the lead in this. It has philosophically and historically the most contributed very greatly to this and it can make a big contribution to the philosophy of a sustainable future for the whole of the human species in the 21st century and beyond. So, I think that's what we must work towards.